White Sox vs Twins vs Guardians: How will the AL Central run in the second half go?

We’ve been told throughout the season that the White Sox have an easy second-half schedule (they do) and will play better against less competition.

But we can’t get ahead of ourselves. The White Sox have played all season as if the division was handed to them in March, so we won’t make the same mistake here.

What follows is an attempt to look at how the schedule will likely unfold, updated at the end of each series, every few days.

I tried to be impartial with these series confrontations. The logic of Chicago getting swept away in San Diego is that it’s a long second leg of a journey, after a demoralizing series loss at Minnesota, with the bolstered Padres battling to set up a playoff series. The White Sox also ran out of gas at the end of the season in 2020 and 2021.

Will Cleveland win five of six to end 2022? It’s hard to do, but the Royals will have cashed in much earlier in their season, and the Guardians get nine home games in total to end the year.

There are very few sweeps in total, so that’s assuming the AL Central clubs, bad as they are, are never too hot or too cold – until Cleveland in the end, the White Sox take advantage of the hottest stretch, scheduled to shoot from three games completed in late August at 11 heading into the home stretch.

So… do the White Sox end up with the division title?


On the way to the second half
Twins 50-44
Guardians 46-44
White Sox 46-46

(all series are three games unless otherwise stated)


With 18 series in the books in the second half, we call the race: technical knockout with two weeks to go, and Cleveland is the winner.

Cleveland has a magic number of five, and there’s no realistic way for the White Sox or the Twins to catch the Guardians. In fact, with the way the White Sox and Twins are playing, Cleveland could actually lose its remaining 12 games and the chasers would still be short: Minnesota would have to go 11-1, the White Sox 8-4. Yes indeed.

The Guardians arrived in Chicago gassed after five games in four days, including a 15-inning marathon in a doubleheader, and embarrassed the White Sox. Let there be no mystery as to who the better team is – it’s Cleveland. The only thing that spares the White Sox even greater embarrassment is that Minnesota (by virtue of being swept by KC!) is choking worse than Chicago. Can’t wait for the clown car of six more games between these two withered flowers before the end of the season!

Cleveland is currently exceeding its reasonable projection of six wins, which is VERY impressive. Remember, we originally had the Guardians and White Sox tied for the division win with just 85 wins, and Cleveland were advancing by virtue of a tiebreaker.

It wasn’t cheap, Cleveland. Over ninety wins, even in a shitty division, is still no consolation prize. Well done.

Goalkeepers 91-71 (+6 against prediction)
White Sox 81-81 (-4)
Twins 80-82 (- 4)


Expected results July 22-24
The White Sox split at home with the Guardians
The twins shared two road games in Detroit

Twins 51-45
Goalies 48-46
White Sox 48-48

Actual Results July 22-24
The White Sox split at home with the Guardians
Twins sweep two games in Detroit

Twins 52-44
Goalies 48-46
White Sox 48-48


Expected results July 25-28
The White Sox shared two games in Colorado
The twins shared two games in Milwaukee
Cleveland loses four-game series to Boston

Twins 52-46
Goalies 49-49
White Sox 49-49

Actual Results July 25-28
The White Sox shared two games in Colorado
Twins swept in two games in Milwaukee
Cleveland splits a four-game series at Boston

Twins 52-46
Goalies 50-48
White Sox 49-49


Expected results July 29-31
The White Sox win the series against the A’s
Twins lose series in San Diego
Guardians lose series in Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
White Sox 51-50
Goalies 50-51

Actual Results July 29-31
The White Sox win the series against the A’s
The twins win the series in San Diego
Guardians win series in Tampa Bay

Twins 53-48
Goalies 52-49
White Sox 51-50


Results expected August 1-3
The White Sox sweep the Royal
The twins win the series against the Tigers
Guardians sweep Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
White Sox 54-50
Guardians 53-51

Actual Results August 1-3
White Sox win series against Royals
The twins win the series against the Tigers
Guardians win series against Diamondbacks

Twins 55-49
Goalkeepers 54-50
White Sox 53-51


Results expected August 4-7
The White Sox shared four games in Texas
The twins shared four games with the Blue Jays
The Guardians have shared four games with the Astros

Twins 57-51
White Sox 56-52
Guardians 55-53

Actual Results August 4-7
The White Sox shared four games in Texas
The twins shared four games with the Blue Jays
The Guardians have shared four games with the Astros

Twins 57-51
Guardians 56-52
White Sox 55-53


Results expected August 9-11
The White Sox shared four games in Kansas City
Twins swept in two games at Dodgers
Guardians lose series in Detroit

Twins 57-53
White Sox 58-54
Goalies 56-55

Actual Results August 9-11
White Sox lose four-game series to Kansas City
Twins swept in two games at Dodgers
Guardians scour Detroit

Guardians 59-52
Twins 57-53
White Sox 56-56


Results expected August 12-14
White Sox win series against Tigers
Twins lose series to Angels
Guardians lose series in Toronto

Goalkeepers 60-54
Twins 58-55
White Sox 58-57

Actual Results August 12-14
White Sox sweep Tigers
Twins lose series to Angels
Guardians win series in Toronto

Guardians 61-53
Twins 58-55
White Sox 59-56


Results expected August 15-18
The White Sox have shared four games with the Astros
Twins win series against Royals
Guardians win four-game series with Tigers

Goalkeepers 64-54
Twins 60-56
White Sox 61-58

Actual Results August 15-18
The White Sox have shared four games with the Astros
The Twins sweep the Royals
The Guardians have shared four games with the Tigers

Goalkeepers 63-55
Twins 61-55
White Sox 61-58


Results expected August 19-22
White Sox lose series in Cleveland
The twins shared four games with Rangers
White Sox lose make-up game in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 65-56
Twins 63-57
White Sox 62-61

Actual Results August 19-22
The White Sox shared two games in Cleveland (one game rained)
Twins lose four-game series to Rangers
White Sox lose make-up game in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 64-56
Twins 62-58
White Sox 62-60


Results expected August 23-25
White Sox lose series in Baltimore
Twins lose series in Houston
The Guardians shared two games in San Diego

Goalkeepers 65-57
Twins 63-60
White Sox 63-62

Actual Results August 23-25
White Sox lose series in Baltimore
Twins swept up in Houston
Guardians sweep two games in San Diego

Goalkeepers 66-56
Twins 62-61
White Sox 63-62


Results expected August 26-28
White Sox win series over Diamondbacks
Twins lose series to Giants
Guardians lose four-game series in Seattle

Goalkeepers 67-59
White Sox 65-63
Twins 63-63

Actual Results August 26-28
White Sox swept against Diamondbacks
Twins vs. Giants Sweep
Guardians lose four-game series in Seattle

Goalkeepers 67-59
Twins 65-61
White Sox 63-65


Expected results from August 29 to September 1
The White Sox sweep the Royal
The twins win the series against the Red Sox
Guardians win series against Orioles

Goalkeepers 69-60
Twins 67-62
White Sox 66-65

Actual results from August 29 to September 1
White Sox win series against Royals
The twins win the series against the Red Sox
Guardians lose series to Orioles

Goalkeepers 68-61
Twins 67-62
White Sox 65-66


Results expected September 2-4
White Sox win series against Twins
Guardians win series against Mariners

Goalkeepers 70-62
Twins 68-64
White Sox 67-67

Actual Results September 2-4
White Sox win series against Twins
Guardians Swept by Sailors

Goalkeepers 68-64
Twins 68-64
White Sox 67-67


Results expected September 5-7
White Sox lose series in Seattle
Twins lose four-game series to Yankees
Guardians win series in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 70-65
Twins 69-67
White Sox 68-69

Actual Results September 5-7
White Sox win series in Seattle
The Twins lose a four-game series to the Yankees (presupposes a final victory Thursday for Minnesota)
Guardians win series in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 70-65
Twins 69-67
White Sox 69-68


Expected results September 8-11
The White Sox shared four games in Oakland
The twins win the series against the Guardians

Goalkeepers 71-67
Twins 71-68
White Sox 71-70

Actual results from September 8 to 11
White Sox win four-game series at Oakland
Guardians Sweep Twins

Goalkeepers 73-65
White Sox 72-69
Twins 69-70


Results expected September 12-15
White Sox sweep two games against Rockies
The Twins sweep the Royals
Guardians win series against Angels
Guardians win make-up game against White Sox

Goalkeepers 76-66
White Sox 74-70
Twins 72-70

Actual results from September 12 to 15
The White Sox shared two games against the Rockies
The Twins sweep the Royals
The guardians swept away the angels
White Sox win make-up game in Cleveland

Goalkeepers 76-66
White Sox 74-70
Twins 72-70


Results expected September 16-19
White Sox win series in Detroit
Twins lose three of five in Cleveland

Goalkeepers 79-68
White Sox 76-71
Twins 74-73

Actual Results September 16-19
White Sox win series in Detroit
Twins lose four of five in Cleveland

Goalkeepers 80-67
White Sox 76-71
Twins 73-74


Results expected September 20-22
White Sox win series against Guardians
The twins win the series in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 81-69
White Sox 78-72
Twins 75-75

Actual results from September 20 to 22
White Sox swept against Guardians
Twins swept away in Kansas City

Goalkeepers 83-67
White Sox 76-74
Twins 73-77


Remaining season (as originally planned)

White Sox win series against Tigers, Twins win series against Angels, Guardians lose series at Texas
Goalkeepers 84-69
White Sox 78-75
Twins 75-78

White Sox lose series at Minnesota, Guardians win series at Rays
Goalkeepers 86-70
White Sox 79-77
Twins 77-79

White Sox sweep series in San Diego, Twins win series in Detroit
Goalkeepers 86-70
Twins 79-80
White Sox 79-80

White Sox win series against Twins, Guardians win five of six games against Royals
Guardians 91-71
White Sox 81-81
Twins 80-82

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