Midterms 2022: Will a red wave overcome a blue wall?
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The chairmen of the two GOP congressional re-election committees appear very confident that Republicans will regain a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate midway through 2022.
“We’re going to take over the Senate, absolutely,” promised Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee, in an interview with Fox News two months ago.
And the chairman of the Congressional Republican National Committee, Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, told Fox News a few months ago, “Note my words: Republicans will enter the 118th Congress with a record majority and class of diverse members. “
INCREASE IN DEMOCRATIC HOME PENSIONS AT THE END OF 2021
Democrats hope to defend their very slim majorities in both chambers in this year’s midterm elections, but they face historic headwinds and face an unfavorable political environment accentuated by President Biden’s poll numbers.
Let’s start with the House, where Republicans far exceeded expectations in 2020 and took a big chunk of the Democrats’ majority. As the GOP lost control of the White House and Senate, Republicans toppled a dozen House seats and need a net gain of just five in the 435-member chamber in November to regain a majority which they held for eight years before losing her amid a blue wave midway through 2018.
Republicans have history on their side. On average, the party that wins the White House in a presidential election loses more than 25 House seats in the ensuing midterm election. And the decade-long congressional redistribution process may favor the GOP, as Republicans control more state legislatures and governors’ offices than Democrats.
Retirement is often seen as a first barometer of things to come in the medium term. And last year, 23 House Democrats announced they would retire after the current term or seek another position in the 2022 election, compared to just 13 House Republicans.
TOP MODERATE BECOMES THE LAST HOUSE DEMOCRACY TO ANNOUNCE ITS RETIREMENT AFTER 2022
Representative for GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy noted that the announcement of Democratic Representative Ron Kind of Wisconsin’s retirement in August was a pivotal moment.
“When you sit down and watch and want to know when the barometer was, when you really felt like you knew the majority was at stake and you had the capacity to win – when Ron Kind said that he was retiring, “McCarthy told Fox News in an interview a few months ago.
Referring to history and redistribution, the House GOP leader stressed that “this cycle is like the 100 year storm”.
And looking at the current climate, the longtime California congressman argued that “you look at the whole problem of where the public is – crime, inflation, revival, border. – all those that the Democrats must defend. Republicans don’t ”. I don’t need to play defense at all. “
MCCARTHY UNDERSTANDS THE MEANS FROM 2022 TO A “100 YEAR STORM”
While playing a lot of defense, the Congressional Democratic Campaign Committee (DCCC) pointed out to Fox News that “House Democrats are heading into the midterms with record fundraising numbers, investments earlier than never in the organization and a very popular program among the voters of the battlefield. . ”
And DCCC spokesman Chris Taylor argued that because “voters see Democratic members and candidates focused on restarting the economy and getting people back to work,” the DCCC believes “incumbent or not, we are confident in our ability to win the House for the time being. “
Republicans controlled the Senate for six years, but lost a majority a year ago as they were narrowly swept in the Georgia Senate second round on Jan.5, 2021.
The Senate is currently divided 50-50 between the two main parties, but Democrats have a majority thanks to the decisive vote of Vice President Kamala Harris thanks to her constitutional role as Speaker of the Senate.
That means Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in November to win back a majority in the Senate.
The GOP is defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. That includes five open seats, including Republican retirements in major battlefields in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and in the competitive state of Ohio, as well as in Missouri and Alabama.
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But Republicans see strong opportunities to turn blue seats to red in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and, potentially, New Hampshire, where first-term Democratic senators are running for re-election in the swing states.
Scott predicted that the GOP “will perform incredibly well in 2022 because we have the right message.”
In response, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) in September announced Defend the Majority, a $ 30 million program in nine Senate battlefield states to strengthen the party’s organizational infrastructure.
“Senate Democrats are at the service of the American people – now the DSCC is making early and historic investments to defend and expand the Democratic majority in 2022,” said then-DSCC Chairman Senator Gary Peters.
FOLLOWING VIRGINIA’S VICTORY, THE GOP ENERGIES TO OVERTURN MORE GOVERNANCE IN 2022
While the battles for control of Congress will receive a lot of attention, 36 states are also holding gubernatorial contests.
Republicans see pickup opportunities in eight states: Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won all of those states – except Kansas – in 2020. Outgoing Democratic governors are running for re-election in all of those states except the key battlefield of Pennsylvania, where the party appears to be regrouping. around State Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the race to succeed limited-time Governor Tom Wolf.
Republicans will play a lot on defense in Arizona and the blue states of Maryland and Massachusetts, where Govs. Doug Ducey and Larry Hogan are limited-time incumbents, and Gov. Charlie Baker has decided not to run for a third term.
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On Georgia’s key battlefield, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp hopes to survive to face a rematch with Democrat Stacey Abrams in 2022. But first. Kemp will have to fend off a GOP challenge from former Sen. David Perdue, who was encouraged to run by former President Donald Trump.
The former president is aiming to defeat Kemp as a revenge for the governor’s refusal to help Trump reverse his narrow 2020 election loss in Georgia to Biden.